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Azeris Want New Look at Tashkent Accord
Publication Jane’s Defence Weekly
Date
1996 Dec 18
Volume/Issue 026/025
Section Briefing
By Line Tony Banks
Azerbaijan’s armed forces would like to renegotiate the Tashkent Agreement for
the sharing of former Soviet weaponry, but not at the expense of Russia gaining
more materiel, a senior army officer told
Jane’s Defence Weekly .
The source, who wished to remain anonymous, pointed out that Azerbaijan has
longer borders and more citizens than Armenia and Georgia - something not con-
sidered when the agreement was signed. He complained that weapons continue
to reach Armenian forces, which, despite the May 1994 ceasefire, are still in a
state of war with Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno Karabakh. The
officer said small arms fire is exchanged daily between Azeri and Armenian forces
despite reports that the ceasefire is holding.
He [the source] said that Armenia has failed to implement UN resolutions in the
area and that NATO, under the terms of Partnership for Peace, should recognise
this and take action against Armenia.
“We hope to find a peaceful solution to this problem,” he said, but according to
Western diplomats in Baku, no Azeri politician would be able to hold office without
declaring his intention to recover captured areas by force, should negotiations fail.
This, however, appears to be rhetoric rather than reality. Azerbaijan has signed
major contracts with Western consortia for the exploitation of its oil wealth and it
fears any renewed large-scale fighting would, at the very least, delay pumping
and much needed foreign income.
Azerbaijan’s own frail internal political system and fears for the future of Russian
President Boris Yeltsin are also cause for concern in Azerbaijan. Since gaining
independence in 1991, Azerbaijan has faced coups, revolts, mutinies, states of
emergencies and separatist threats as well as joining, leaving and rejoining the
Commonwealth of Independent States.
The country is held together by President Heydar Aliev, but he is ageing and
appears to have no suitable successor. An internal power struggle is likely and the
popular policy of retaking Nagorno Karabakh by force may swing the balance in
any leadership struggle.
Although Azeris downplay the possibility, they fear that an expansionist Russian
leader may replace Yeltsin. First on the list for “reintegration” may be Azerbaijan
and its oil fields, some Azeris believe, but not before the wells and pipelines are
pumping.
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